Section 01 — Economy
Growth, Jobs & Prices
The world's largest economy at $28.5 trillion GDP. How it's growing, where jobs stand, and what Americans are paying at the register.
Fresh — GDP: Jun 2026 · Unemployment: Jun 2026 · CPI: May 2026
Source: BEA · BLS · Federal Reserve · bea.gov · bls.gov
GDP Growth Q1 2026
2.1%
Annualized real GDP growth in Q1 2026 — BEA third estimate. Beats economist expectations of 1.6%. Q4 2025 was only 0.5%. Full year 2025: ~2.1%. AI-driven investment and exports led the rebound.
▲ Beat expectations · BEA Third Estimate Jun 26, 2026
Q1 2026's 2.1% was driven by investment (+10% in equipment and intellectual property), exports, government spending, and consumer spending. The biggest sector contributors were information technology (AI infrastructure buildout), federal government, professional services, and durable goods manufacturing. The US economy grew at roughly 2.1% for full year 2025 — resilient despite tariff uncertainty and the Q4 slowdown to 0.5%.BEA GDP Third Estimate Q1 2026 (Jun 26, 2026) · Treasury Department Economic Policy Statements May 2026
The Iran conflict introduced meaningful downside risk in 2026. Energy prices surged (gasoline +40.5% YoY by May), which is both inflationary and a drag on consumer spending. Most forecasters project full-year 2026 GDP at 1.8–2.1%, which is below the post-pandemic recovery pace. The Federal Reserve is watching whether energy price spikes filter into broader inflation — if they do, a rate hike could slow growth further.BEA Q1 2026 GDP Release · CBO Economic Outlook 2026–2036 · Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters Q1 2026
Unemployment Jun 2026
4.2%
Official U-3 rate down 0.1pp from May. Nonfarm payrolls added only +57,000 jobs in June — well below trend. U-6 "real" unemployment (includes part-time and marginally attached): 7.9%. Median weekly earnings: $1,235.
↔ Stable but slowing job growth · BLS Jun 2026
The gap between the official U-3 (4.2%) and the broader U-6 (7.9%) is the key story. U-6 includes discouraged workers and people working part-time who want full-time work — it's closer to what many economists consider "real" unemployment. At 7.9%, nearly 1 in 12 workers is underemployed or marginally attached to the labor force. Historically, U-6 below 8% is considered healthy, but the trend matters: it has drifted up from a cycle low of ~6.7% in 2023.BLS Employment Situation Jun 2026 (Jul 2, 2026) · USAFacts Unemployment Analysis · BLS Alternative Measures Table A-15
June's +57,000 payroll gain was the weakest since late 2024. The prior two months were revised down by 74,000 combined. Job growth has averaged ~75,000/month in 2026 — well below the 167,000/month average in 2024. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs in June, reflecting weaker seasonal hiring. Meanwhile, layoffs in manufacturing and financial services reflect global demand softness and restructuring. The Fed's own forecasters now expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% by end of 2026.BLS Employment Situation Jun 2026 · Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters Q1 2026 · BLS Employment Revisions
CPI Inflation May 2026
4.2%
Highest since April 2023. Third consecutive monthly acceleration. Energy costs +23.5% YoY — gasoline +40.5% — driven by Iran conflict shock. Core CPI (ex-food & energy): 2.9%. Fed's 2% target has not been met for 5+ years.
▲ Rising — 5yr above target · BLS CPI Release Jun 10, 2026
The Iran conflict is the dominant driver of 2026 inflation — energy costs alone accounted for over 60% of the May monthly CPI gain. Gasoline +40.5%, fuel oil +58.9%. But the concern is second-round pass-through: shelter inflation held at 3.4%, restaurant and airline prices are rising. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has specifically warned that the Fed will "deliver price stability" and removed an expected rate cut, suggesting a rate hike is now on the table for late 2026.BLS CPI Release May 2026 (Jun 10, 2026) · CNBC CPI Analysis Jun 2026 · Federal Reserve FOMC Statement Jun 17, 2026
PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred measure — hit 4.1% in May 2026, the highest since April 2023. Core PCE (ex-food & energy) was 3.4%. The Fed has now missed its 2% inflation target for over 5 consecutive years (since 2021). Average hourly earnings grew 3.5% — modestly above inflation in headline terms, but real wages have been under pressure for multiple years. The cumulative price level since 2021 is up approximately 23%, meaning the dollar has lost roughly 19% of its purchasing power in 5 years.BEA PCE Release May 2026 (Jun 25, 2026) · CNBC PCE Analysis · BLS Average Hourly Earnings May 2026
Fed Funds Rate Jun 2026
3.5–3.75%
Federal Reserve held rates steady through H1 2026 after cutting 100bps in 2024–2025. With inflation re-accelerating to 4.2%, markets now price a rate hike in late 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish stance at the June 17 meeting.
↔ On hold — hike possible Q3/Q4 · Federal Reserve Jun 17, 2026
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 100 basis points total during late 2024 and 2025, bringing the target range from 5.25–5.50% down to 3.50–3.75%. It then paused as inflation re-accelerated. At the June 2026 meeting, the FOMC removed a previously indicated cut and signaled a hike is possible. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has stressed the Fed will "deliver price stability" — a phrase echoing Paul Volcker's 1979 stance that preceded aggressive rate hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to ~4.5%, reflecting market expectations for sustained higher rates.Federal Reserve FOMC Statement Jun 17, 2026 · Federal Reserve Historical Rate Data · CNBC Fed Analysis Jun 2026
Trade Deficit Apr 2026
$55.9B
Monthly trade deficit narrowed slightly from $56.6B in March. Goods deficit: $83.7B. Services surplus: $27.8B. US exports more services (financial, tech, IP) than it imports, but runs a large goods deficit — a structural feature of the US economy for 50 years.
↔ Persistent structural deficit · BEA/Census Apr 2026
Median Weekly Earnings Q1 2026
$1,235
Full-time wage and salary workers. Up 3.4% YoY — marginally above inflation in the latest quarter, though cumulative real wage losses since 2021 remain significant. 121 million full-time workers tracked. Source: BLS Q1 2026.
▲ +3.4% YoY · BLS Median Weekly Earnings Q1 2026
Section 02 — Fiscal Health
The Numbers That Keep Economists Up at Night
$39 trillion in debt. $1.9 trillion annual deficit. $1 trillion in interest payments for the first time ever. Social Security depleting by 2032. The fiscal picture — honestly.
Fresh — National Debt: May 2026 · Deficit: CBO 2026 · Interest: CBO 2026
Source: CBO · US Treasury Fiscal Data · fiscaldata.treasury.gov · cbo.gov
⚠ Net interest payments on the national debt are projected to surpass $1 trillion in FY2026 — making interest the third-largest line item in the federal budget, behind only Social Security ($1.46T) and Medicare ($1.05T). More than the entire defence budget ($886B). Source: CBO / Bipartisan Policy Center, 2026.
🏦 National Debt & Deficit — FY2026
National Debt (Total Public)
As of May 27, 2026. Growing at approximately $100,000 per second — or $8.6 billion per day. The debt has grown from $5.7 trillion in 2000 to $39+ trillion today — nearly a 7× increase in 26 years. FY2026 projected to close near $40 trillion.
$39.16T
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Debt held by the public as % of GDP — the most internationally comparable measure. At 100%+ of GDP, the US is in historically elevated territory. The previous all-time high was 106% of GDP in 1946, after WWII. CBO projects 120% by 2036.
123.1%
Federal Budget Deficit FY2026
CBO projection for FY2026 (Oct 2025–Sep 2026). The deficit has averaged 3.8% of GDP over the past 50 years — current 5.8% of GDP is significantly above historical norms. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed July 2025, added $4.1 trillion to the 10-year debt projection.
$1.9T
5.8% of GDP
5.8% of GDP
Net Interest Payments FY2026
First time in US history that interest payments exceed $1 trillion annually. Weighted average interest rate on all outstanding debt: ~3.36%. At this rate the US pays ~$2.74 billion per day just in interest. By 2036, interest is projected to reach $2.1 trillion — nearly doubling.
$1T+
3.3% of GDP
3.3% of GDP
The core problem is structural: the US government spends significantly more than it collects in taxes, every year, and has done so in all but 4 of the last 55 years. The deficit is not a cyclical problem (caused by recession) — it exists even during strong growth periods. The CBO projects that under current law, deficits will average 6.1% of GDP over the next decade. The primary driver of future spending growth is mandatory programmes (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) and interest on existing debt — neither of which Congress can easily cut without major legislation.CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036 · Bipartisan Policy Center Fiscal Outlook Analysis 2026
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law in July 2025, made permanent many tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and added new tax cuts. CBO estimates it added $4.1 trillion to the 10-year debt projection. While supporters argue the growth effects will offset some of the cost, CBO's official scoring shows the bill increasing deficits materially. The Supreme Court also ruled some tariff revenues unconstitutional, reducing a key revenue assumption in the projections.CBO Cost Estimate of OBBBA (Public Law 119-21) · Brookings Federal Budget Outlook Mar 2026 · CRFB Debt Analysis Mar 2026
Long-term: CBO projects debt held by the public will reach 175% of GDP by 2056 — surpassing WWII levels and continuing to grow. At that point, annual interest alone would consume 6.9% of GDP — larger than the entire defence budget today. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes that debt dynamics are now potentially "explosive" — the gap between the interest rate on debt and the nominal growth rate is widening, which can lead to self-reinforcing debt spirals. No country has successfully grown its way out of debt at 100%+ of GDP without either significant austerity or inflation.CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook Mar 2026 · Brookings Budget Outlook Update Mar 2026 · CRFB Debt to 175% GDP Analysis
⏰ Social Security & Medicare — The Solvency Clock
Social Security OASI Trust Fund Depletion
CBO projects the Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund depletes reserves in 2032 — just 6 years away. At that point, under current law, benefits would automatically be cut by approximately 23% for all recipients. Congress has never let Social Security cut benefits — but has also not yet passed a fix.
2032
6 years away
6 years away
Social Security Annual Cash Shortfall
The OASI trust fund already has a $245 billion per year cash shortfall (excluding interest credited from the general fund). This grows to over $500 billion per year after trust fund depletion in 2032. Total Social Security spending: $1.46 trillion in FY2026.
$245B/yr
Medicare Trust Fund
Medicare (HI trust fund) faces a separate solvency issue — depletion projected by early 2030s depending on healthcare cost growth assumptions. Combined Medicare and Medicaid spending: over $1.6 trillion in FY2026 — the single largest category of federal spending.
~2030s
A critical distinction: "trust fund depletion" does not mean Social Security stops paying benefits. It means the dedicated trust fund is exhausted and Social Security can only pay benefits from incoming payroll tax revenue — which is currently insufficient to cover full benefits. The 23% automatic cut under current law would be applied equally to all beneficiaries — retirees, disabled workers, survivors — unless Congress acts. Every year of inaction makes the eventual fix more expensive. The Social Security actuaries estimate that immediate and permanent fixes would require either a 3.4% payroll tax increase or a 21% across-the-board benefit cut — or some combination.CBO Budget Outlook 2026 · Social Security Trustees Report 2025 · SSA Office of Chief Actuary Solvency Analysis
Section 04 — Governance
Institutions, Democracy & Rule of Law
The world's oldest modern democracy. Home to the strongest institutional checks ever designed. Also: ranked 55th in press freedom, 24th in anti-corruption, and navigating unprecedented institutional stress.
Fresh — CPI: Feb 2026 · Press Freedom: Apr 2026 · GE results: Nov 2024
Source: Transparency International · RSF · Freedom House · V-Dem · EAC
EDITORIAL NOTE: Governance data includes both rankings where the US performs well and where it does not. All from independent, internationally recognised bodies. No political judgement from this site.
📊 Governance Rankings
24
of 182
CPI 2025
Corruption
CPI 2025
Corruption
Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 — Rank 24
Transparency International CPI 2025. Score: 67/100. Below Denmark (#1, score 90), New Zealand (#2), Singapore (#3). Above global average (42) but declining from a peak of 76 in 2016. The US has slipped 5 places in the last decade.
▼ Declining trend since 2016 · Transparency International Feb 2026
Transparency International CPI 2025 · transparency.org
The US score has declined from 76 (2016) to 67 (2025) — a 9-point drop over a decade, one of the largest sustained declines of any high-income democracy. Transparency International specifically cites: increasing politicisation of the justice system, erosion of anti-corruption norms in public procurement, and declining separation between business interests and political office. The CPI measures public sector corruption perception and does not directly assess private sector or financial crime, which the US scores better on through its SEC and DOJ enforcement record.Transparency International CPI 2025 · TI Historical CPI Data 2016–2025 · TI USA Country Profile
55
of 180
Press
Freedom 2025
Press
Freedom 2025
⚠ Press Freedom Index 2025 — Rank 55
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) 2025. The US has dropped from rank 20 in 2015 to rank 55 in 2025 — a 35-place decline in a decade. RSF cites: attacks on journalists at public events, seizure of journalist records, "enemy of the people" rhetoric, and concentration of local media ownership.
▼ 35-place decline in a decade · RSF Apr 2026
Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index 2025 · rsf.org
The decline in US press freedom ranking reflects both structural and political factors. Structural: approximately 2,200 US local newspapers have closed since 2005, leaving large "news deserts." Six corporations own 90%+ of major US media outlets. Structural media consolidation weakens journalism's watchdog function independent of any political administration. Political: RSF documents escalating hostility to press — from physical attacks on journalists at political events (documented from 2016 onward) to DOJ subpoenas of journalist records and classification disputes. The First Amendment remains the strongest press protection in the world legally — the decline is in practice, not in law.RSF Press Freedom Index 2025 · Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press 2025 · Pen America Press Freedom Report
Free
Freedom
House
2025
House
2025
Democracy Status — "Free" but Score Declining
Freedom House 2025: Rated "Free" — score 83/100. Down from 94/100 in 2010. The US is the only established democracy to have seen its Freedom House score decline so substantially over a 15-year period. V-Dem (University of Gothenburg) now classifies the US as an "electoral democracy" rather than "liberal democracy."
▼ Score declining · Freedom House 2025 · V-Dem 2025
Freedom House Freedom in the World 2025 · V-Dem Institute 2025
#1
Rule of
Law Score
WJP
Law Score
WJP
Rule of Law — Strong Institutional Framework
World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2025: US ranks in the top tier globally for constraints on government powers, open government, and civil justice. The separation of powers, independent judiciary, and Bill of Rights remain among the strongest institutional designs in world governance history.
↔ Strong institutional design · WJP Rule of Law Index 2025
World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2025 · worldjusticeproject.org
Section 05 — USA in the World
Where America Leads. Where It Lags.
The world's largest military, most patents, most Nobel prizes, most Fortune 500 companies. Also: below average life expectancy, 55th in press freedom, and the only rich nation without universal healthcare. Both sides.
Fresh — GII: Sep 2025 · HDI: May 2025 · Military: SIPRI 2025
Source: WIPO · UNDP · SIPRI · IMD · Transparency International · RSF
EDITORIAL NOTE: Both wins and gaps shown. Selective data is spin — not a scorecard.
🏆 Where the US Leads
#3
of 139
GII 2025
Innovation
GII 2025
Innovation
Global Innovation Index — 3rd Most Innovative Economy
WIPO GII 2025. Behind Switzerland (#1) and Sweden (#2). US leads globally in: university quality, venture capital, AI investment, knowledge-intensive exports, and scientific publications. Home to 4 of the world's top 5 S&T clusters (San Francisco, New York, Boston, San Diego).
↔ Consistent top-3 · WIPO GII Sep 2025
WIPO Global Innovation Index 2025 · wipo.int/gii
#1
Military
Spend
SIPRI 2025
Spend
SIPRI 2025
Military Expenditure — World's Largest
US defence spending: $886 billion in FY2026 — more than the next 10 countries combined. Represents ~3.1% of GDP. US has 750+ military bases in 80 countries. Nuclear arsenal: ~5,500 warheads (SIPRI). Sole superpower with truly global force projection capability.
↔ Consistent #1 globally · SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2025
SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2025 · DoD Budget FY2026
The US defence budget of $886 billion in FY2026 reflects both direct military costs and broader national security spending. It funds: 1.3 million active duty personnel, 11 aircraft carrier strike groups (out of 20 globally), the world's most advanced nuclear deterrent, and the intelligence community (CIA, NSA, DIA and others). From a purely military capability standpoint, the US maintains an unmatched ability to project force globally — the cornerstone of the post-WWII international order that has underpinned global trade and relative great-power peace.DoD FY2026 Budget Request · SIPRI Military Expenditure 2025 · Congressional Research Service US Military Basing
The fiscal cost is significant: defence at $886B exceeds what the US spends on interest ($1T+), but both together represent $1.9 trillion of the $7+ trillion federal budget. The opportunity cost debate — whether the same resources in healthcare, infrastructure, or education would produce better national outcomes — is a legitimate and longstanding policy question. NATO allies collectively spending far less while benefiting from the US security umbrella has been a source of recurring tension in US foreign policy across administrations.CBO Federal Budget Overview FY2026 · DoD Budget · NATO Defence Spending Data 2025
#20
of 193
HDI 2024
UNDP
HDI 2024
UNDP
Human Development Index — 20th Globally
UNDP HDI 2024. Score: 0.927 — "Very High Human Development." Ranked 20th globally — below Norway (#1), Switzerland (#2), and several European peers, but above most of the world. Strong performance on education and GNI per capita; pulled down by health (life expectancy below peers).
↔ Stable top-20 · UNDP Human Development Report May 2025
UNDP Human Development Report 2024 · hdr.undp.org
#1
Patent
Filings
Resident
Filings
Resident
Patent Filings — World Leader in Quality Innovation
US files ~600,000 patent applications annually — #2 globally by volume behind China (1.8M), but #1 globally in high-value PCT international patents. US universities produce more Nobel Prize winners than any other country. R&D spending: 3.45% of GDP — among the highest in the world.
↔ Consistent leader in high-value IP · WIPO IP Indicators 2025
WIPO World IP Indicators 2025 · National Science Foundation R&D Data
⚠ Where the US Lags or Faces Hard Questions
46th
Life
Expectancy
Global Rank
Expectancy
Global Rank
⚠ Life Expectancy — Below Peer Nations
76.4 years — approximately 46th globally and below all peer high-income democracies. Despite spending $12,500+ per capita on healthcare annually — the most in the world — Americans live shorter lives on average than citizens of Japan, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Canada, Germany, and Australia.
▼ Structural gap vs peers · CDC NCHS 2023 · OECD Health at a Glance 2025
CDC National Center for Health Statistics 2023 · OECD Health Data 2025
175%
Debt-GDP
projected
by 2056
projected
by 2056
⚠ Long-Term Fiscal Trajectory — Unsustainable
CBO long-term projections: debt held by the public reaches 175% of GDP by 2056 — surpassing WWII highs and continuing upward. Annual deficits projected at 9.1% of GDP by 2056. Interest payments alone will reach 6.9% of GDP — larger than the entire current defence budget.
▼ Trajectory deteriorating · CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook Mar 2026
CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook Mar 2026 · CRFB Debt Analysis · Brookings Budget Update
Only
rich nation
no universal
healthcare
no universal
healthcare
⚠ Only High-Income Country Without Universal Healthcare
The US is the only member of the OECD — 38 high-income nations — that does not provide universal health coverage to all citizens. Approximately 25–26 million Americans have no health insurance. Medical bankruptcy is a uniquely American phenomenon among wealthy nations.
▼ Structural gap · KFF · OECD Health at a Glance 2025
OECD Health Systems Characteristics Survey 2025 · KFF Health Insurance Coverage Data
🔒
Data Integrity Promise
Every number on USAScorecard traces to an official US government publication (BEA, BLS, CBO, Census, Treasury, Federal Reserve), an internationally recognised body (WIPO, UNDP, SIPRI, Transparency International, RSF), or a directly cited congressional or judicial record. We never estimate. Where data is unavailable or outdated, we say so. No political party, government, or advertiser funds or influences this site.