Section 01 — Economy
Climbing Out, Slowly
After a 0.4% growth year in 2025 — the weakest of any major advanced economy — New Zealand's recovery is underway but fragile. The Middle East conflict's energy shock has forced Treasury to cut its 2026/27 growth forecast by more than a percentage point.
Fresh — GDP: Treasury May 2026 · Unemployment: Stats NZ May 2026 · Inflation: Q1 2026 · OCR: Jun 2026
Source: The Treasury New Zealand · Reserve Bank of New Zealand · Stats NZ · treasury.govt.nz
GDP Growth — 2025 Actual / 2026-27 Forecast
+2.3%
Treasury's May 2026 Budget cut the 2026/27 growth forecast to 2.3%, down sharply from 3.4% forecast in December — a downgrade Treasury attributes directly to higher borrowing costs, softer global demand and the Middle East conflict's energy shock. 2025 itself grew just 0.4%, the weakest full year this decade.
↔ Downgraded from 3.4% forecast · Treasury Budget May 2026
New Zealand's 2022-2024 slowdown followed the RBNZ's aggressive tightening cycle — the Official Cash Rate peaked at 5.5% in 2023, the highest since 2008, as the central bank fought post-pandemic inflation. Since August 2024 the RBNZ has cut rates by 325 basis points to 2.25%, well below neutral, which is now the primary support for the 2026 recovery alongside resilient tourism (foreign arrivals near pre-COVID levels) and strong dairy and meat exports.HSBC New Zealand in 2026 · Reserve Bank of New Zealand OCR decisions · Coface NZ Country Risk File
Unemployment Q1 2026
5.3%
Down slightly from 5.4% in Q4 2025 — the highest jobless rate since September 2015 — as employment rose while labour force participation fell. 163,000 people unemployed. Youth unemployment remains elevated: 24.9% for ages 15-19, 12.2% for ages 20-24. Underutilisation rate: 12.9%.
▼ Easing from cyclical high · Stats NZ May 2026
The NEET rate (15-24 year-olds not in employment, education or training) rose to 14.4% in Q1 2026 from 13.3% the prior quarter — with young women aged 20-24 hit hardest, up 1.9 points to 20.3%. Stats NZ describes this as evidence that "those leaving school or university are finding it tougher to get work," a pattern economists link to the lagged effect of the 2023-2025 tightening cycle on new labour market entrants specifically.Stats NZ Labour Market Statistics Mar 2026 quarter · NZ Herald analysis May 2026
CPI Inflation Q1 2026
3.1%
Above the RBNZ's 1-3% target midpoint. Treasury projects inflation peaking at 4.0% in Q2 2026 as the Middle East conflict pushes energy and transport costs higher. Annual wage inflation was just 2% over the same period — meaning real wages are being squeezed even as prices accelerate.
▲ Peak still ahead · Treasury / Stats NZ 2026
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
2.25%
Held at 2.25% in a rare 3-3 split vote broken by Governor Anna Breman's casting vote — the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee is visibly divided on whether to begin hiking in response to the energy-driven inflation risk. Analysts expect the first hike as early as Q3 2026 if the unemployment rate is judged to have peaked.
↔ Split committee, hikes signalled from Q3 · RBNZ Jun 2026
Income Inequality — Gini
36.2
Structural inequality shaped by the market-liberalising reforms of the mid-1980s sits middling among OECD peers; social inequality (after taxes and transfers) is closer to Anglo-American levels than to the more redistributive Scandinavian economies. More unequal than Australia (32.0) on this measure.
↔ Middling on OECD comparison · OECD / International Rankings of NZ 2025
Tourism Recovery
~94%
Foreign arrivals reached approximately 94% of pre-COVID (2019) levels in early 2025 and have continued recovering, supported by relaxed visa settings. Tourism is one of the clearest bright spots in an otherwise sluggish economy, alongside resilient dairy and meat export volumes.
▲ Approaching pre-pandemic levels · Coface 2025
Section 02 — Fiscal Health
No Debt Clock Here — By Design
Unlike deficit-financed economies with an ever-rising debt clock, New Zealand's Treasury is targeting a return to budget balance by 2028-2030. Debt is still rising in the near term to fund the deficit — but off a genuinely low starting base by developed-world standards.
Fresh — Budget: May 28, 2026 · Net Debt: Treasury May 2026 · OBEGAL: Budget 2026
Source: The Treasury New Zealand · NZ Debt Management Office · treasury.govt.nz
ℹ Why no rising "debt clock" framing: New Zealand's net debt is still increasing in the near term to finance the current deficit, so a live counter would in fact tick upward for now — but Treasury explicitly targets a return to fiscal balance from 2029/30, a materially different trajectory to economies with structurally embedded, open-ended deficits. We show the actual live counter below rather than omit it, but read it alongside that target date.
🏦 Crown Public Finances — Budget 2026
Net Core Crown Debt 2025/26
42.4% of GDP, narrower than the 43.3% forecast at the December half-year update. Projected to peak at 46.1% of GDP in 2027/28 — itself an improvement on the previously forecast 46.9% peak — before beginning to decline.
42.4%
of GDP · rising to 2027/28
of GDP · rising to 2027/28
OBEGAL Deficit 2026/27
NZ$14.09 billion, wider than the NZ$12.99 billion forecast in December — signalling that near-term fiscal consolidation is proving harder than the government anticipated. The narrower measure excluding ACC (OBEGALx) is forecast at 2.4% of GDP for the same year.
NZ$14.09B
widened vs Dec forecast
widened vs Dec forecast
Path Back to Surplus
Government forecasts OBEGALx returning to surplus in 2028/29 at $2.6 billion (0.5% of GDP) — a year earlier than previously projected, driven by stronger-than-expected tax revenue even as real GDP growth remains a drag on that same revenue base.
2028/29
surplus target
surplus target
Government Bond Issuance
NZ$34 billion planned for 2026/27, with four-year gross issuance to June 2030 trimmed to NZ$124 billion from a prior NZ$130 billion forecast — reflecting the narrower near-term deficit and reduced supply pressure on the bond curve.
NZ$124B
4-yr to Jun 2030
4-yr to Jun 2030
Treasury's central forecast already reflects the Middle East conflict's energy shock, but flags a more severe downside scenario: if Brent crude oil sustains around US$135 a barrel for nearly half a year, inflation could surge to 5.4% by September 2026 and unemployment could peak at 5.8%, weakening nominal GDP and tax revenue enough to push the OBEGALx surplus target out by roughly $2.1 billion in 2028/29 — though Treasury still expects a return to surplus even in that scenario.Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2026, The Treasury New Zealand, May 28 2026
Section 04 — Governance
The World's 4th-Cleanest Government
New Zealand has ranked at or near the top of the Corruption Perceptions Index since it began. Transparency International's own local chapter is the first to note the score has drifted down from a high of 91 in 2015 to 81 today — still exceptional, but a trend worth watching honestly.
Fresh — CPI: Feb 2026 · Press Freedom: RSF 2026 · Freedom House: 2025
Source: Transparency International · Reporters Without Borders · Freedom House
EDITORIAL NOTE: Governance data is presented non-partisan. Includes both institutional strengths and emerging pressures. All from internationally recognised independent bodies.
4
of 182
CPI 2025
Score: 81
CPI 2025
Score: 81
Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 — Rank 4, Score 81
Transparency International CPI 2025 (Feb 10, 2026). New Zealand trails only Denmark (89), Finland (88) and Singapore (84) worldwide. Transparency International New Zealand's own analysis is candid that the score has fallen from a peak of 91 in 2015 — the organisation attributes this to a broader "long-term decline in leadership to tackle corruption" affecting even established democracies.
▼ Down from 91 (2015) to 81 (2025) · TI NZ 2025 analysis
Transparency International CPI 2025 · Transparency International New Zealand
77.4
Press
Freedom
2026
Freedom
2026
Press Freedom — Score Declined in 2026
RSF World Press Freedom Index 2026: New Zealand scored 77.38, down from 81.37 in 2025 — its first year of decline after a period of growth, and a steeper single-year fall than most top-20 countries recorded. New Zealand still sits well within the "good" global tier, led by Norway (92.72), the Netherlands and Estonia.
▼ First decline in several years · RSF 2026
Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index 2026
99
of 100
Freedom
House 2025
Freedom
House 2025
Freedom in the World — 99/100
Freedom House's Freedom in the World 2025 report scores New Zealand 99 out of 100 — political rights 40/40, civil liberties 59/60 — placing it among the small handful of countries rated "Free" at the very top of the global scale.
↔ Consistent top-tier rating · Freedom House 2025
Freedom House Freedom in the World 2025 · International Rankings of New Zealand
Transparency International New Zealand's own 2024 research report on anti-corruption institutions concludes New Zealand "has more work to do to dissuade individuals and organisations from breaking or bending the rules for personal advantage," even while acknowledging bribery remains genuinely rare. The organisation frames the decline from 91 (2015) to 81 (2025) not as evidence of a crisis, but as a signal that strong integrity systems require continuous reinforcement rather than being treated as permanently secured.Transparency International New Zealand, "An assessment of the effectiveness of anti-corruption institutions in New Zealand," 2024
Section 05 — New Zealand in the World
Clean, Free, and Economically Fragile
World-class governance, near-total press and political freedom, and one of the most business-friendly regulatory environments anywhere. Set against that: the weakest growth year of any advanced economy in 2025, and a youth labour market still losing ground.
Fresh — CPI: Feb 2026 · OECD Survey: May 2026 · Treasury Budget: May 2026
Source: Transparency International · OECD · The Treasury New Zealand · Stats NZ
EDITORIAL NOTE: Wins and gaps shown equally. All from internationally recognised independent bodies. No political judgment.
🏆 Where New Zealand Leads
4
of 182
CPI 2025
CPI 2025
Corruption Perceptions Index — 4th Cleanest Government Worldwide
Score of 81, trailing only Denmark, Finland and Singapore. New Zealand has ranked at or near the very top of this index since Transparency International began publishing it in 1995.
↔ Consistent global top-5 · TI Feb 2026
Transparency International CPI 2025
99
of 100
Freedom
House
Freedom
House
Political and Civil Freedom — Near-Perfect Score
Freedom House rates New Zealand 99/100 on its Freedom in the World index, among the very small group of countries at the top of the global scale for political rights and civil liberties combined.
↔ Top global tier · Freedom House 2025
Freedom House Freedom in the World 2025
Top 4
Economic
Freedom
Freedom
Economic Freedom — 3rd-4th Globally
4th freest on the Index of Economic Freedom and 3rd on the Economic Freedom of the World index, reflecting minimal red tape for business formation and strong, predictable property rights — the same institutional strength that once made it the World Bank's top-ranked country for ease of doing business.
↔ Consistent top-5 · Index of Economic Freedom 2025
Index of Economic Freedom · Economic Freedom of the World 2025
⚠ Where New Zealand Faces Hard Questions
0.4%
GDP
growth
2025
growth
2025
⚠ Growth — The Weakest Year of Any Advanced Economy
New Zealand's economy grew just 0.4% in 2025, the tail end of the deepest, most prolonged downturn among comparable advanced economies this decade, driven by the RBNZ's aggressive 2022-2023 tightening cycle. Recovery is underway in 2026 but Treasury has already had to cut its own forecast once, from 3.4% to 2.3%, as the Middle East energy shock complicates the rebound.
▼ Deepest advanced-economy downturn this decade · HSBC / OECD 2026
HSBC New Zealand in 2026 · OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2026
14.4%
Youth
NEET rate
rising
NEET rate
rising
⚠ Youth Labour Market — Disengagement Rising
14.4% of 15-24 year-olds were not in employment, education or training in Q1 2026, up from 13.3% the prior quarter, with young women aged 20-24 facing the sharpest deterioration. Stats NZ's own commentary frames this as evidence that new labour market entrants are bearing a disproportionate share of the downturn's cost.
▲ Rising quarter-on-quarter · Stats NZ May 2026
Stats NZ Labour Market Statistics, March 2026 quarter
81→77
CPI/Press
scores
drifting
scores
drifting
Institutional Scores — Still Excellent, But Trending Down
Both the Corruption Perceptions Index (91 in 2015 → 81 in 2025) and the Press Freedom Index (81.4 in 2025 → 77.4 in 2026) have declined over time, even as New Zealand remains near the very top of global rankings on both. Transparency International's own local chapter is explicit that this reflects a need for continuous institutional reinforcement, not complacency.
↔ Elite tier, softening trend · TI / RSF 2025-2026
Transparency International New Zealand · RSF World Press Freedom Index 2026
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Data Integrity Promise
Every number on NewZealandScorecard traces to an official New Zealand government publication (The Treasury, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Stats NZ), an internationally recognised body (OECD, Transparency International, Freedom House, Reporters Without Borders, UNDP), or a directly cited Budget document. We never estimate. Where data is unavailable, we say so. No political party funds or influences this site. Refreshed every 1st and 15th of every month.