Section 01 — Economy
Target Met, Then Momentum Faded
China hit its "around 5%" 2025 growth target on the nose — but the underlying trend tells a rougher story: a "high start, low finish" year, a deepening property slump, and a Q2 2026 reading that was the weakest in three and a half years. Deflation only lifted because of an energy price shock, not a demand recovery.
Fresh — GDP: NBS Q2 2026 · Unemployment/CPI/PPI: NBS Jun 2026 · PBOC LPR: Jul 20, 2026
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) · People's Bank of China (PBOC) · General Administration of Customs
GDP Growth — Full Year 2025
+5.0%
The National Bureau of Statistics confirmed 2025 growth landed exactly on the government's "around 5%" target, taking GDP past ¥140 trillion (~$20.0 trillion) for the first time. Quarterly growth slowed steadily through the year — 5.4% in Q1 down to 4.5% in Q4 — a pattern officials described as "high start, low finish."
↔ Target met exactly, decelerating each quarter · NBS Jan 2026
Services led growth at 5.4%, with IT/software (+11.1%) and business services (+10.3%) standout performers, while fixed-asset investment fell 3.8% amid property overcapacity and cautious households. Exports were the other major pillar: total goods trade hit ¥45.47 trillion as companies diversified shipments toward Europe and Latin America to offset weak domestic demand and US tariffs.NBS Statistical Communiqué on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, Feb 2026
GDP Growth — Q2 2026
4.3%
Year-on-year growth cooled from Q1 2026's 5.4% to 4.3% in Q2 — the weakest quarterly pace since late 2022 — as the government's own lowered 2026 target range (4.5%–5.0%, the least ambitious on record) came under pressure. Middle East conflict-driven oil prices added imported inflation just as domestic demand stayed soft.
▼ Weakest quarter since Q4 2022 · NBS Q2 2026
Youth Unemployment (16–24, Excl. Students) Jun 2026
14.9%
Down from 15.6% in May and the lowest June reading in a year, per NBS — but still the highest for the month of June since the statistics bureau changed its counting methodology in late 2023 (after the old measure hit a record 21.3% in June 2023 and publication was suspended for six months). The Ministry of Education expects 12.7 million graduates in 2026, up nearly 4% on 2025, typically pushing the rate higher through midsummer. Overall surveyed urban unemployment was 5.0% in June.
▲ Elevated for a decade of methodology, structurally high · NBS Jun 2026
Consumer & Producer Prices Jun 2026
CPI +1.0%
Consumer prices rose 1.0% year-on-year in June (NBS), missing forecasts and slowing from May's 1.2% — a modest reprieve after years of near-zero inflation and outright deflation. Producer prices (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY, ending a 33-month deflationary streak, but the swing was driven almost entirely by Middle East conflict oil and energy prices, not a genuine demand recovery; food prices actually fell 1.6% YoY.
↔ Energy-shock driven, not demand-driven · NBS Jul 2026
China's PPI had declined year-on-year for 33 consecutive months through mid-2025 — one of the country's longest deflationary streaks in decades — reflecting manufacturing overcapacity and weak domestic demand rather than falling input costs. The June 2026 return to positive PPI was driven by higher mining and raw-material prices tied to the Middle East conflict (+16.5% and +8.6% YoY respectively), while prices for finished consumer goods stayed in outright deflation (-0.9% YoY), showing factories still can't pass costs downstream to consumers.NBS monthly price releases, Jun–Jul 2026 · ING Think commentary via itiger.com
PBOC Loan Prime Rate Jul 2026
1yr 3.00%
The People's Bank of China held both benchmark lending rates unchanged on July 20, 2026 — the 1-year LPR (most corporate/household loans) at a record-low 3.00% and the 5-year LPR (mortgage reference) at 3.50%, frozen for a 14th consecutive month. The PBOC is balancing slowing domestic growth against imported inflation risk from the Middle East conflict, keeping policy on hold rather than cutting further.
↔ Frozen 14 months at record lows · PBOC Jul 20, 2026
Trade Surplus — Full Year 2025
$1.2T+
China posted a record trade surplus exceeding $1.2 trillion in 2025 as exports rose 5.5% and imports stayed roughly flat, even as the effective US tariff on Chinese goods averaged an estimated 33% (blended across MFN, Section 301, IEEPA and reciprocal layers) under a fragile truce extended to November 2026. Private firms accounted for 57.3% of total trade.
▲ Record surplus despite elevated US tariffs · General Administration of Customs 2025
Section 02 — Fiscal Health
Two Very Different Debt Numbers, Both "Official"
China's on-budget government debt looks manageable by global standards. Add in the off-balance-sheet local government financing vehicles that fund most local infrastructure — as the IMF's "augmented" measure does — and the picture changes considerably. Both numbers are shown here, from their respective sources.
Ageing (partially) — On-budget debt: IMF 2024 data (most recent standardised comparison) · Augmented debt: IMF/independent estimates through 2025 · Budget target: NPC Mar 2026
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) · Ministry of Finance of the PRC · S&P Global Ratings · National People's Congress
⚠ Context — a genuine data-transparency gap: China's Ministry of Finance reports on-budget central and local government debt separately from the borrowing done through Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) — off-balance-sheet entities that fund most local infrastructure. The IMF's standard "general government debt" figure and its "augmented" figure (which folds LGFV borrowing back in) differ by roughly 35+ percentage points of GDP. Both are shown below, clearly labelled, rather than picking one.
🏦 Public Finances
IMF General Government Debt (Standard Measure)
88.3% of GDP in 2024, the IMF's standardised cross-country comparison figure, up from 82.0% the prior year. This is the number most commonly cited in international rankings.
88.3%
of GDP · IMF 2024
of GDP · IMF 2024
IMF Augmented Government Debt (Incl. LGFVs)
An estimated 124% of GDP once off-budget local government financing vehicle debt is folded in, per IMF analysis — some independent estimates for the broader public sector (incl. government-guided funds) place it as high as 130–150% of GDP for 2025.
~124%
of GDP · IMF est. 2025
of GDP · IMF est. 2025
Local Government "Hidden" (LGFV) Debt
S&P Global Ratings estimates off-balance-sheet local government borrowing at up to ¥40 trillion (~$5.8 trillion), calling it "a debt iceberg with titanic credit risks." Beijing has run a bond-swap programme since 2023 to move some of this debt onto official books.
~¥40T
S&P Global est.
S&P Global est.
Official 2025–2026 Budget Deficit Target
Around 4% of GDP for both years, per the National People's Congress — raised from the traditional 3% ceiling China held for over a decade, reflecting the fiscal cost of stimulus and stabilisation measures amid the property downturn.
~4%
of GDP target · NPC
of GDP target · NPC
For decades, Chinese local governments funded roads, transit and public services largely through land-sale revenue to property developers. As the property market has fallen for over 30 consecutive months (see Economy for the housing data), that revenue stream has collapsed, forcing local governments to lean more heavily on LGFV borrowing — precisely the debt the IMF's "augmented" measure is trying to capture, and precisely why the official and augmented numbers have diverged so sharply since 2021.Institut Montaigne, "Local Government Debt in China," Sep 2024 · East Asia Forum, "China's Debt Reckoning," Sep 2025
Section 04 — Governance
A Single-Party System, Measured By Outside Bodies
China is governed by the Chinese Communist Party under a one-party system; the National People's Congress (NPC), the country's legislature, meets annually and approved the 15th Five-Year Plan in March 2026. Independent international indices — not MyGovScorecard's own judgment — are used to assess corruption and press freedom.
Fresh — CPI: Feb 2026 · Press Freedom: Apr 2026 · NPC session: Mar 2026
Source: Transparency International · Reporters Without Borders (RSF) · National People's Congress
EDITORIAL NOTE: Governance data here is drawn entirely from internationally recognised independent bodies (Transparency International, Reporters Without Borders) and official NPC/government records. This section describes China's governance system and how outside organisations measure it — factually, without editorializing on the merits of any political system.
76
of 182
CPI 2025
Score: 43
CPI 2025
Score: 43
Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 — Rank 76, Score 43
Transparency International's CPI 2025 (Feb 10, 2026) gives China a score of 43/100, unchanged from 2024, ranking it 76th of 182 countries — just above the global average of 42. China maintains an assertive domestic anti-corruption enforcement posture; a revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law took effect in October 2025, criminalizing both giving and receiving commercial bribes with enhanced penalties.
↔ Unchanged score, 2nd year running · TI Feb 2026
Transparency International CPI 2025 · transparency.org/en/cpi/2025
178
of 180
RSF 2026
Score: 13.9
RSF 2026
Score: 13.9
⚠ Press Freedom Index 2026 — Rank 178 of 180
Reporters Without Borders' 2026 World Press Freedom Index (April 30, 2026) ranks China third from the bottom globally, ahead only of North Korea and Eritrea, with a score of 13.9/100. RSF's report states China has the highest number of detained journalists in the world, with 121 media professionals currently held. Hong Kong, assessed separately, ranks 140th.
▼ Among the world's three lowest-scoring countries · RSF Apr 30, 2026
Reporters Without Borders, 2026 World Press Freedom Index
✓
15th
5-Year
Plan
5-Year
Plan
15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) Approved — March 12, 2026
The National People's Congress approved the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development at its fourth session, following the Communist Party Central Committee's October 2025 recommendations. The plan sets goals including raising life expectancy to around 80, alongside broader economic modernization targets, and covers 2026–2030 — China's governance is structured around these five-year planning cycles rather than electoral terms.
↔ Routine five-year planning cycle · NPC Mar 12, 2026
National People's Congress records; Wikipedia summary of official NPC proceedings
Section 05 — China in the World
Manufacturing and Patent Superpower, Property and Demographic Reckoning
China leads the world outright in trade volume, clean-tech manufacturing, and patent filings. It also faces a property downturn now past its third year, a shrinking population, and consistently ranks among the world's most restrictive environments for independent press, per international monitors.
Fresh — Trade/EV/solar: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026, Ember Energy 2025-26 · Patents: WIPO Mar 2026 · Housing: NBS Jun 2026
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) · World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) · Ember Energy · NBS
EDITORIAL NOTE: Wins and gaps shown equally. All figures from internationally recognised independent bodies or official statistics agencies. No political judgment.
🏆 Where China Leads
$1.2T+
Record
Trade
Surplus
Trade
Surplus
World's Largest Trade Surplus — Record $1.2 Trillion+ in 2025
China posted the largest annual trade surplus on record in 2025, and also overtook Japan to become the world's largest vehicle exporter, shipping approximately 6.5 million cars — over a third of them electric. This came despite a blended average US tariff on Chinese goods of roughly 33% across overlapping tariff layers.
↔ Record surplus, largest car exporter globally · Customs data / IEA 2025
General Administration of Customs 2025 · IEA Global EV Outlook 2026
80%
of Global
Solar
Exports
Solar
Exports
Clean-Tech Manufacturing Dominance — 80% of Global Solar Exports, 75% of EV Production
China supplies around 80% of the world's exported solar PV modules (IEA) and captures nearly 75% of global electric-car manufacturing capacity, per the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026. China produced 16 million electric cars in 2025 — outstripping its own domestic demand by 20% — pushing EV exports to a record 2.5 million-plus vehicles.
↔ Unmatched scale in clean-tech supply chains · IEA 2026
IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 · Ember Energy China solar export data
#1
World
Patent
Filer
Patent
Filer
World's Top Patent Filer — 1.8 Million Applications, 6th Straight Year Leading PCT Filings
Applicants based in China filed around 1.8 million patent applications worldwide in 2024 — more than the next four countries (US, Japan, South Korea, Germany) combined — and led international PCT filings for the sixth consecutive year with 73,718 applications in 2025, per WIPO. Huawei was the single largest corporate PCT filer worldwide for an eighth straight year.
↔ Widening lead, 6 years running · WIPO Mar 2026
WIPO World Intellectual Property Indicators 2025 · WIPO PCT Yearly Review 2026
⚠ Where China Faces Hard Questions
‑3.39M
4th year
of decline
of decline
⚠ Population Decline — Fourth Straight Year, Record-Low Births
China's population fell to 1.405 billion in 2025, the fourth consecutive annual decline, with only 7.92 million births — the lowest count since 1949 and less than half the figure from a decade ago. Researchers at the Rhodium Group project the country could lose nearly 60 million people over the next decade, roughly the population of France.
▼ Accelerating decline, no reversal in sight · NBS Jan 2026
NBS 2025 Population Data · Rhodium Group demographic analysis, 2026
32+
months
falling
falling
⚠ Property Downturn — Over 32 Consecutive Months of Falling Home Prices
New home prices across 70 cities fell every month from late 2023 through at least mid-2026 (NBS), with secondary-market prices in major cities still down 7–11% year-on-year as of June 2026 (China Index Academy). The slump has depressed local government land-sale revenue, a key driver of the local government debt concerns detailed in the Fiscal section.
▼ Longest downturn in the NBS housing series · NBS / China Index Academy Jun 2026
NBS 70-city housing index · China Index Academy secondary market data, Jul 2026
178
of 180
press
freedom
press
freedom
⚠ Press Freedom — Third From the Bottom Globally
China ranks 178th of 180 countries in RSF's 2026 World Press Freedom Index, ahead of only North Korea and Eritrea, with RSF reporting China holds more detained journalists (121) than any other country in the world. This sits alongside the country's assertive global soft-power investments, including continued expansion of its Belt and Road Initiative health and infrastructure partnerships.
↔ Consistently near the bottom of the index for years · RSF Apr 2026
Reporters Without Borders, 2026 World Press Freedom Index
🔒
Data Integrity Promise
Every number on ChinaScorecard traces to an official Chinese government publication (NBS, PBOC, MOF, General Administration of Customs, NPC), an internationally recognised body (IMF, WIPO, IEA, Transparency International, Reporters Without Borders), or a directly cited independent-ratings report (S&P Global). Where official and independent estimates diverge — as with government debt — both are shown, clearly labelled, rather than picking one. We never estimate silently. No political party or government funds or influences this site. Refreshed every 1st and 15th of every month.